September 30, 2021
In the first ten days of this month, the ferrosilicon spot market continued to operate at a high level, but the rise was slower than before. The manufacturer's sales are good, and the market inventory is not much; After a short fall, the futures disk hit a new high, breaking through 11000 yuan / ton (up to 11346 yuan / ton), a new high since the listing of ferrosilicon futures; In addition, with the support of production raw material cost, the market mentality is more optimistic.
In the middle of the year, the development and Reform Commission of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province issued a notice on ensuring the completion of the dual control target task of energy consumption in 2021. Subsequently, all enterprises involved in ferroalloy and metal magnesium in Zhongwei region of Ningxia and Fugu region of Shaanxi stopped production. On September 22 and 23, the 2201 contract of ferrosilicon futures opened continuously, with a maximum of 14444 yuan / ton, another record high! The spot price immediately rose sharply by more than 5000 yuan / ton, 75# ferrosilicon price broke 21000 yuan / ton, 72# ferrosilicon price was mostly about 17000-18000 yuan / ton, the market was slightly chaotic, and most manufacturers were reluctant to offer, so there was a strong wait-and-see mood. At the same time, the price of upstream raw material blue carbon also rose sharply, and due to the further contraction of construction, tight supply and procurement difficulties (Shenmu blue carbon industry association held the third quarter blue carbon industry dispatching meeting, emphasizing that all enterprises "unconditionally implement the energy consumption double control and production restriction policy issued by Yulin City and the sales suspension policy issued by Shenmu city").
By the last week of September, the spot market was stable, with 75# standard express quotation of about 19000-21000 yuan / ton and 72# standard express quotation of about 16000-18000 yuan / ton; Hegang group released the bidding information of ferrosilicon 75B in October, with a volume of 3126 tons (a month on month increase of 391 tons) and a price of 16000 yuan / ton (a month on month increase of 5300 yuan / ton); Some enterprises in Ningxia resumed production, but the scope of peak electricity production was expanded, and the futures disk continued to rise after the limit rose again on September 28. In September, the opening price of the main contract of ferrosilicon futures 2201 was 10450, the highest price was 17038, the lowest price was 10286, the closing price was 17024, the settlement price was 16144, the trading volume was 12841900, and the position was 106088, an increase of 62.63%.
In terms of export, according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in August 2021, China exported 68827.706 tons of ferrosilicon (silicon content > 55%), an increase of 21.29% month on month and 389.54% year-on-year. The strong follow-up of overseas demand has also injected a booster into the market.
In the downstream, the domestic steel market has entered the traditional "golden nine" peak season, the production end production restriction policy is strictly implemented, the supply is tight, the steel mills increase prices intensively and have a strong reluctance to sell, and the market mentality is more optimistic.