May 26, 2022
The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar, which has been falling continuously since late April, has gradually "recovered lost ground" recently.
According to the data, the exchange rate of the onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar has both recovered the integer mark of 6.7. From the perspective of the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar, according to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7898 on May 13, the lowest since May, and the following 8 trading days showed a rise of 7 and a drop of 1 (compared to the previous 8 trading days). trading day), reported at 6.655 on May 25, with a cumulative increase of 1348 basis points in stages.
From the perspective of comprehensive analysts, China's stable growth policies are frequently issued, and the domestic economy is showing a recovery trend, which has injected confidence into the market and formed a strong support for the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the fall of the US dollar index from a high level also eased the pressure on the passive depreciation of the RMB. In the short term, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may be difficult to reproduce the previous consecutive decline
"The depreciation of the RMB to a certain extent is a short-term change in stages. It does not change the overall characteristics of the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and maintaining a basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level." Wang Chunying said that for a super-large economy like my country, the exchange rate The long-term trend is mainly determined by domestic fundamentals. In the short term, the repair of the US dollar index and the fundamentals of the domestic economy are still the two key factors affecting the trend of the RMB exchange rate. On the one hand, it will take time for the domestic growth stabilization policy to take effect and supply chain repair; on the other hand, with the Fed adopting a pre-positioning strategy of raising interest rates, the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in June is still high. As the June Fed meeting on interest rates approaches, the USD index may still be on the strong side